The North Korean leadership are understandably concerned over the rhetoric coming out from the administration and with it full of individuals such as John Bolton and Mike Pence, who have both stated that the ‘Libya model’ is plausible option for North Korea. Both have been more than happy for the US to go to war in the Middle-East for the benefit of the US and aide Israel in their genocide against the Palestinians.
What is the ‘Libya model’ and why do people such as those named above consider it a successful model? If you look at the state of the country since Muammar Gaddafi was killed in 2011, the operation looks to be disaster, furthermore, it helped the rise of extremist groups like ISIL.
The state of Libya
Just eight years prior to the killing of Colonel Gaddafi in 2011, Libya agreed to give up its nuclear weapons but, in a NATO-backed revolution sought to overthrow Colonel Gaddafi and has since thrown the country into turmoil. Currently the government led by Prime Minister Fayez Sarrai, who is backed by the United Nations, is deeply unpopular and isn’t recognised by the majority of the country.
Subsequently this means the government have failed to bring stability to Libya.
The education and health systems are in turmoil with two-thirds of schools unable to access drinking water, large swathes of the population struggle to live with significant cash shortages due to the flailing economy and a banking system in dire need of reform and regular massive power outages. Libya is now used as major hub for human trafficking where the market openly sells African migrants and ISIL are still continuing to operate from the region.
Electoral laws still haven’t been created for the September elections which means they will have to establish significant security for them to even take place. However, this is going to be a difficult task as the factions are deeply divided and several militias operate throughout the country.
Fayez Sarrai has to also deal with General Khalifa Haftar, who controls the Easter region with his Libyan National Army but it is also rumoured that he died in April and might have to be replaced by the time elections do come around, adding to the uncertainty.
The fragility of negotiations
The deeply divided factions did meet on Tuesday in Paris and agreed to hold parliamentary elections in December. However, the agreement is fragile and there is still doubt as to whether these will take place. The instability that Libya face directly stems from the NATO-backed intervention which makes it perplexing as to why the US administration continue to push the idea that the ‘Libya model’ is a realistic option.
It can only push North Korea away from the table and into the arms of China and if we look at it from a purely geopolitical and diplomatic point of view, this would be a disaster for the US. This is unsurprising though because the Trump administration is deeply concerning over their foreign policy, at least with both Bush and Obama, it followed the same pattern. But with Trump, his moves are reckless and risk another trade war with China.