With the confirmation that the amazing Coneygree will be a no show for Ireland’s national hunt equivalent of the King George IV Chase – The Lexus Chase, 28th December 2016, a Value-seeker will have their eyes on a Christmas tip.

Oliver Sherwood’s former Grand National winning superstar; Many Clouds, heads to The Lexus off the back of an impressive 3½ length victory over the useful, Paul Nicholls trained, Le Mercurey at Aintree over an extended three miles, with the Cue Card conquering Irish Cavalier back in third. There is every indication that despite underachieving slightly last year, this stout stayer has the class and the speed to drop back in trip and run a blinder in this sought after race.

Homegrown hopeful Zabana and the Willie Mullins trained Djakadam, who made a bold winning return in the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase earlier this month, represent possible dangers to the selection. Although, the latter won over the shorter distance of 2m 4f last time and, will need to avoid jumping errors that have let him down in the past, as stamina comes into play. Many Clouds could out jump this rival and with 8/1 still available (Coral and Paddy Power); it represents great each way value.

No such thing as easy money

On the topic of value, you don’t need to be Einstein or Yuri Geller to know that staking €80 on a 1.24 (just over 1/4), in a banana skin of a Europa league game between Feyenoord and Fenerbahce.

Upon the say so of Ryan Betting, is the definition of stupid, rather than easy money. One thing’s for sure, you aren’t going to recoup much backing Paris Saint-Germain against the tricky Lille, either. Don’t get me started on the Schalke and Bayern Munich (by at least two goals)selection, in the latest round of Bundesliga matches.

I won’t go on, but surely there must be an alternative approach?

Value doesn’t stop at the sales

Admit it, there’s a certain buzz that you get out of paying €10 for something that ordinarily retails at €20. It is exactly the same with betting, you feel like you have had a winner if you get 8/1 for something that goes off at 5/1.

Don’t get me wrong, I understand why there is a plethora of people pushing odds-on shots and odds-on doubles, trebles and accumulators. There are bound to be stats and form to support the prediction. In response, I pose a little holiday season exercise for you – choose an odds price say 1/3 and, then follow a number of selections that is a multiple of it (for example 6 selections would be good for the price 1/3). Then simply see how many of these do not win, if it is two or more, in this example, then easy money would not pay, would it? You may be surprised at the outcome, obviously, the larger the sample the better.

Every cloud has a silver lining, Many Clouds has several

Trainer Oliver Sherwood gave the clearest indication that Many Clouds will head to the Lexus in a racingahead.net piece earlier this week:

“We’ll see what else is confirmed for the Lexus, but we’re training him as if he’s going to run.”

Oliver Sherwood has, true to his character, been honest and forthright throughout the build-up to this event so far.

8/1 is the value bet for a horse of Many Clouds’ ability. He couldn’t have had a better build up and with the ever unpredictable weather threatening to play a part. His versatility regarding ground preference is the icing on the cake.

Recommendation: €5 each way Many Clouds (8/1 each way 1-2-3)