2016 seems like a long time ago, but the UK is probably going through one of the most turbulent times in its political history. The vote to leave the European Union ( EU) has sent shock waves through the political and social establishment. But can this process be reversed? Is the UK really going to leave the EU?
What is Article 50?
article 50 of the Lisbon treaty allows any member state to unilaterally Give notice of their intention to leave the EU. The notifying member state then has a two year 'negotiating period' where it decides its future relationship, if any with the European Union.
This deal must then be ratified by what is called a 'qualified majority' this is around 72 percent of the remaining 27 member states. This two year period can only be extended if all of the member states of the EU agree to do so. In theory at least 'Brexit' day will be March 29, 2019.
Article 50 revocation
Legal and political opinion on this matter is as divided as the public is on this issue. It is important to point out that no country has left the European Union, so politically and legally we are in uncharted waters. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May is on record saying 'This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back.'
European Council President Donald Tusk is seemingly of a different view however, he has stated that he believes that legally Article 50 can be revoked.
He was asked once if the UK could unilaterally withdraw the notification to leave within the two year period and he stated Formally, legally, yes.'
I wouldn't suggest listening to the politicians when it comes to matters of legal argument, they are always going to have their own agenda on this, More interesting is the position of the UK Supreme Court who in a recent case on Article 50 came to a rather intriguing conclusion.
Both sides in this case in particular had proceeded under the assumption that Article 50 was irrevocable and the court judgement ruled 'We are content to proceed on the basis that this is correct, without expressing a view of our own.'
In my view, this sentence leaves the possibility of revoking Article 50 firmly on the table, otherwise why on earth would the Supreme Court judgment end a statement by saying 'without expressing a view of our own.' They have completely contradicted themselves and I believe that is because the said legislation has never been tested in a UK court and no one is in any position to set any legal precedent until a case has been bought in front of a Judge.
Is the UK really going to leave the EU?
It is the elephant in the room and the question that our politicians will continue to give different answers too, depending on who you speak to. I'll put my cards on the table here; I don't believe we are going to get Brexit, in anything else other than in name only. I was hopeful at the beginning of this process and I even delivered on a promise I made to William Hague on the campaign trail by joining the Conservative Party. But I cancelled my membership when I realised Theresa May had no intention of delivering on what I had voted for back in 2016.
I have watched as she has sold our vote down the river and she is effectively kicking this can down the road with her fabled 'transition period' which is keeping us inside the EU and taking new laws and regulations without a say until December 2020.
The real problem here is if you take rules without a say you are working with one hand tied behind your back.
So in a weird post Brexit vote world, I am left with one viable option on the ballot paper if I am to send the 'government' a clear message that 'no deal is better than a bad deal.' That vote is for the Liberal Democrats, the only party that is currently offering us a vote on the terms of Brexit and besides this process was started by the people. So why not end it that way? The logic is inescapable and I am not afraid of a debate on the deal vs no deal scenario, because make no mistake about it whilst we are in transition I can well see the EU drowning us in legislation and regulation.
Brexit in name only will most likely benefit the few, but it will also cause another much larger problem: No one is getting what they voted for.
So give us a vote and lets put it to bed once and for all and move on with more pressing issues such as social care or even education.
