Opinion polls in France suggest that Emmanuel Macron, the victorious centrist candidate in the first round of last night's French presidential elections, could easily beat the National Front's Marine Le Pen. However, it is not that straight forward for the centrist candidate. He still has to convince many undecided electors that he is capable of becoming French president, regardless of his apparent lack of political experience.
If the 2015 general election, Brexit and Donald Trump's victory last year are lessons to be learnt about believing Opinion Polls, then we need to take what the French polls say with a huge pinch of salt. Le Pen has done incredibly well. Considering she only secured 17.6% of the vote during the 2012 presidential elections, to get this far is truly a remarkable feat that has no doubt made her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, blush. The anti-establishment feeling building in France as a result of ten years of economic stagnation and recent terrorist attacks will no doubt further strengthen the National Front's resolve, especially if the latter persists in Paris.
Harold Wilson once said a week is a long time in politics. If that's the case, Le Pen still has plenty of time to build up her support and defeat Macron. Considering France uses the same voting system as London does to elect its mayor, there is no doubt tactical electors will use the second round as an opportunity to try to crush the National Front. But for those inspired by Brexit and Trump, these people still have one last chance to send a message to the establishment. Watch this space.