It is clear judging by tweets from pro-EU centrist politicians like George Osborne and Angela Merkel that they are relieved Emmanuel Macron has emerged victorious in the first round of the French presidential elections. A Le Pen victory in the final round of the contest, however, will throw the EU's future into question. It could cause greater damage to the bloc's existence than Brexit ever could. Yet even if the National Front candidate fails to win in the second round, it is impossible to ignore the fact the EU's days are numbered.
When she secured 17.6% of the vote during the 2012 presidential elections, it was easy for the EU to shrug off the National Front's chances of winning in France.
But circumstances have changed considerably since. Brexit and Trump represent a global feeling of hostility towards the establishment everywhere. Geert Wilders may have failed to become Dutch prime minister last month, but he still increased the Freedom Party's share of the vote. And in Europe, this crisis has been perpetuated by a crumbling eurozone, an inability among European politicians to understand that miss migration is causing profound social and economic problems and a stubborn desire to proceed with European unity.
It is too easy to be complacent about this election. EU politicians will no doubt toast to a Macron victory if he wins the final round. But they should not ignore the possibility of Le Pen winning a greater share of the vote than she has ever done before. It may not have resulted in another anti-establishment victory, but it would certainly suggest she has a greater chance in 2022 of winning. EU leaders would do well to take note.
