I can't think of a time when Andy Murray was ever considered the outright favourite to win the Australian Open. In 2010, he made the final for the first time but he never was a favourite over Roger Federer, the man who beat him in the final. After 2010, I think at all times Murray would have been considered a second favourite or longer behind Federer, Novak Djokovic, and/or Rafael Nadal.
When it comes to in-tournament odds and the fluctuations that come when match results are pouring in, there may have been a time when Murray was the favourite, like after Stan Wawrinka beat Djokovic at the 2014 Aussie.
However, the Scot lost the next day anyways in the same round and may have been a secondary/tertiary favorite behind Federer and Nadal at that. But Murray is the favourite to win the 2017 Australian Open and I'm pretty sure that's precedent setting.
Murray 3 to 2 to win the Aussie
William Hill has some of the more optimistic odds that I could find, with Murray priced at 3/2, odds that I don't think are worth taking. Djokovic is the second favourite at 7/4 with BetFred, odds that I don't like, either. 2014 champion Stan Wawrinka is the third favourite at 12/1 with Stan James, odds like I actually loathe. I didn't mind Murray at 7/2 a few months back with bet365, but it's funny how a gargantuan winning streak that includes five titles and the No.
1 ranking causes odds to shorten isn't it?
If you want to know what I don't like about Murray's odds, then let me ask you this: what are Murray's two most-recent match losses? I think most of you will remember the five-set loss to Kei Nishikori at the US Open in the late summer. Davis Cup fans will remember the five-set loss to Juan Martin del Potro.
The interesting thing with those losses is that they were both in the best-of-five-set format. So Murray won 23 straight best-of-three-set matches to close the season, but he lost two of his three most-recent best-of-five-set matches? My conclusion is that you should want better than 3 to 2 to win the Aussie.
Nishikori 25 to 1 to win Aussie
Djokovic has been far too wishy-washy since the French Open to bother with at this point. 4 to 1 on him or Murray would be great, but good luck getting it. I think the only thing that can be done in the Aussie market right now is a sprinkle on Kei Nishikori at 25/1 with bet365. Nishikori beat Murray at Flushing Meadows, Nishikori is a hard courter, and most importantly the odds on him pay for a lot of risk. I can't say the same about the short odds on the two favorites. I see Nishikori as more like 6 to 1 on true odds, maybe a little shorter, so 25s is a really good overlay.
