Donald Trump has said he will announce the decision on Iran at 2pm ET (7pm BST), whilst Boris Johnson has appeared on Donald Trump’s favourite, Fox & Friends, to try and court the US president into remaining apart of the Iran nuclear deal. The US president has until May 12th to decide whether he is to pull out of the deal or not, many commentators are concerned by the reaction within the Middle-East if Trump does decide to pull out of the deal.
Just a few weeks ago, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that he was unsure as to what Trump’s decision was to be and that he does believe that he will pull out of the deal.
This is an outcome that is not desirable whatsoever.
Boris Johnson sounding reasonable?
The main concern is that if Donald Trump does pull out of the Iran deal, what is the next step? With the appointment of John Bolton, there are deep concerns that a strike on the country could well be on the table, a move that would no doubt please Israel. But speaking on Fox & Friends, Boris Johnson stated, "Are we seriously saying that we will bomb those facilities ... is that really a realistic possibility?". When the Foreign Secretary is sounding more reasonable and level-headed, there is serious cause for concern.
Mr Johnson also warned of the consequences that could befall on the region if the deal is scrapped, he mentioned that it could cause an arms race in the Middle-East because if Iran have nuclear weapons, then Saudi Arabia and Egypt will want to pursue an avenue to have their own nuclear deals.
But what is a greater concern being that Trump wants to try and renegotiate the deal as well and whatever the US are planning, it will no doubt be detrimental to Tehran.
The UK have supported the US in wanting to renegotiate the deal, which again puts the UK at odds with Russia and China once again, but they have stated that they would rather see the US remain as part of the deal.
The tinderbox could be ignited because the Iranians have been unequivocal in their promise to pull out of the deal and continue researching nuclear material if anything within it changes; the US have stated they would respond with Military action if this happens, something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has demanded.
Israel’s government ministers are growing increasingly paranoid of Iran as Yuval Steinitz, an energy minister and a security cabinet minister, said that if Bashar al-Assad allows Iran to turn Syria into a “military vanguard” against Israel, then they would target the Syrian President. The other consequence could fall in the Korea peninsular because with talks coming up to denuclearise the region, North Korean leaders would no doubt have concerns over the US administration’s reliability on such delicate matters.
What could Trump announce?
There is a very real possibility that he could pull out of the deal entirely because since he has become president, he has taken a gung-ho approach to foreign policy.
One major aspect has been attempts to contain Iran. But he has also taken drastic measures to court the favour of the Israeli government, by being open supporters of Netanyahu’s violent and oppressive regime along with officially recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital – something that the Palestinians have been paying for with their lives even more so since.
The US and UK have long been in the business of attempting to remove leaders whom disagree with the west for decades. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that is likely that Trump will pull out of the deal and political commentators around the world are convinced he will. The real question is why does he want make such a potentially dangerous move?
I offer a possible reason as to why, he believes that his approach to North Korea was correct, he believes that demanding the impossible then threatening the use of vast resources, military or otherwise, on Iran will make them back down. But importantly, he seems to be responding to the ‘Iran Lies’ presentation by Netanyahu on Holocaust Memorial Day, ironically a presentation that was full of lies itself.
However, the region has been entirely destabilised due to US and UK intervention and the Iranian population, rightly or wrongly, largely back their government because they are fully aware of what has happened to its allies in Syria and Libya. It is highly likely that Iran will not back down no matter what, which could see the US President use military force, something that Israel want so that they can advance their genocide of the Palestinians with more military forces because at the moment they believe Iran pose a significant threat to their security.
What makes the prospect of war with Iran even more potential is that US District Judge George B. Daniels of the Southern District of New York ordered Iran to pay more than $6bn to victims of the September 11, 2001 attacks – despite the 9/11 Commission’s official investigation found no evidence of Iranian involvement.
