Brexiteers, rejoice! Theresa May is finally triggering Article 50 next Wednesday, the mechanism of leaving the EU under the 2007 Lisbon Treaty.
So what will the EU's priorities be in the upcoming Brexit negotiations? Politics or Economics? The ball is in their court.
Priorities
Politically, it would be advantageous for them to punish Britain. No doubt motivated by Wilders' defeat in Holland last week, European politicians feel that the EU still has a chance of surviving. And with anxieties about a possible Le Pen victory in France, they will do not wish to encourage other countries to take a leap of faith.
But economically, it would be disastrous for the EU to disrupt Brexit. It is no secret that British trade is worth billions of pounds more to the EU than vice versa. Considering Greece and Italy may unleash a recession that makes 2008 look mild and the significant loss of British budgetary contributions, it would not be wise to destroy trade links between Britain and Germany.
Brexit- soft or hard?
It is for this reason I am optimistic a free trade deal between Britain and the EU will take much less time than the one Canada recently struck with the economic bloc.
It is ironic that the EU wishes to punish Britain politically, but by doing so, it will not survive at all. Whether it's a soft or a hard Brexit, this is happening and the superbloc's days are numbered regardless.
