Hypotheses of what may have happened to Air Asia 8501

Weather may have been the main factor causing the tragedy. In the majority of aviation accidents, many have cited, from fog to thunderstorms as a main contributory factor.

Disappearance of an Air France Airbus A330 off the coast of Brazil in 2009.

Quote: “Analogous to what happened five-years ago with Air France flight AF447 back in 2009, which tumbled into similar ice crystal-like inter-tropical convergence storms, while cruising over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Brazil, at higher altitudes there is a much higher probability of engine stall, primarily due to less oxygen in the air alongside varying temperature distribution affecting engine power during highly turbulent tropical storms. -Prof McGee”.

Note: Large parts of South East Asia has been inundated with floods during which is now the monsoon season, that usually sees heavy rainfall and strong winds annually , but seasonal monsoon has been the worst in the past 30 years . Causing widespread heavy flooding in parts of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia in the past week. Flood waters in Malaysia submerging partially whole towns and villages displacing 200,000 plus victims.

( Prof.Oliver McGee, former deputy assistant transportation secretary during Bill Clinton’s administration and a current professor at Howard University in Washington DC.

The Professor continued in his opinion piece on the Air Asia crash.

• A large area of disturbed weather, including areas of intense thunderstorms with cloud tops that reached or exceeded the Air Asia flight's cruising altitude, were likely in the vicinity of the plane when it disappeared.

Quote: The flight's pilot requested a turn to avoid bad weather ahead of the plane, which is a standard procedure for when flights encounter bad weather and turbulence.

Opinion: There were supposedly highly turbulent black storm cells seen in part of a weather map of the region. Such black cells can reach very high altitudes in the range of airliner cruise, and could feature heavy winds and lightning with large hail stones that could possibility be injected into the aircraft engines like bullets, causing foreign object damage and high cycle fatigue failure of engine parts during the tragic moments of flight QZ8501.

Moreover, such tropical storm conditions shown may have also supposedly caused distortion of air flow inside the engine intake that may have in all probability induced engine stall, thus allegedly causing flight QZ8501's Airbus A320 airliner to literally fall out of the sky into the Java Sea off the coast of Indonesia. “End quote.

2 Theories of Aviation Expert analyst.

ON THE EDGE OF LOGIC': QZ8501 behaved like a 'fighter jet' - rising & plunging almost vertically

Indonesian aviation analyst Gerry Soejatman after he had examined figures leaked from the official air crash investigation team is of the opinion that the aircraft rose up as fast as a fighter jet and then dropped back into the ocean almost vertically into the water. Suggesting that the crew may have lost control of the Airbus 320-200 after encountering highly extreme weather conditions.

He said “It’s really hard to comprehend [the plane acted in a way] bordering on the edge of logic,” as it plunged into the water “‘like a piece of metal being thrown down.”

Mr. Soejatman theorized that the aircraft was caught in a severe updraft, followed by an equally severe ground draft that could have caused the crash. Basing his theory on the leaked figures which shows the plane to have been climbing at a staggering rate of 6000ft to 9000ft per minute.

The aircraft then fell at 11,000ft a minute, with bursts of up to 24,000ft – in marked contrast to regular circumstances, when a plane would climb between 1000ft to 1500ft on a sustained basis, gaining 3000ft in a burst.

“You can’t do that at altitude in an Airbus 320 with pilot action,” he argued.

In a contrasting analysis, Peter Marosszeky, an aviation expert from the University of NSW, opined to Sydney Morning Herald that the aircraft seem to have descended at an extremely low speed, as low as 61 knots, which may be suggestive that the aircraft seem to be almost heading straight down.

And may explain why the plane and crash site was found in water just 10km from its last point of radar contact.

In surmising , Mr. Marosszeky posed that a climb rate of at least 6000ft a minute “ which is usually in the rate of climb domain for fighter jets “ and for a commercial aircraft to do so, may be indicative of a “severe weather event .


Finally, does this suggest that the victims had no time to react, if something violent did happen to the plane mid-flight, the crew and passengers trapped in the fuselage will be like riding a horrifying roller coaster ride, unable to do anything?

Still until the wreckage is recovered, all theories or conjectures remain just that